“Accident” seems most likely to me, given the circumstances.
While I trust the U.S. not to have an accident more than I trust China, neither make me comfortable.
Regarding you alarm that we may be reduced to pillaging. Shame on you, that is not something to publish.
I don’t see why not. The chance is real, and needs to be accounted for in any honest policy decision rooted in fact. Nobody is going to choose to pillage based on a Medium article, but they might be forced to do it by policy measures that end in a food shortage. So the chance needs to be considered when evaluating policy.
When I wrote this in 2018, evaluating the statistical likelihood of violent revolution over multi year time spans, it was not irresponsible. It was on the front page of Medium. COVID-19 response, depending on how we handle it, increases these chances tremendously.