Although there are areas where there are military problems right now, they are fewer in number and smaller than they have been in the past.
Are you sure about that? I would like to see an analysis on this, particularly within the context of Fourth Generation Warfare.
How many people in the US have seen a revolution at home in their lifetime? None. So your stats are wrong
Oh come on now, we both know that’s not how probability works. Just because you haven’t hit on the roulette wheel recently does not change the probability that you will hit on the wheel.
I granted in the article that the data pool was small. I discussed this in another response thread, here:
The way I did it is not great.
If we do this with rain events, we don’t just use one rain gauge. We use a wide array of rain data across a geographic…
If you were to build a study to assess the probability of violent revolution, how would you go about building it? Without going through the motions of such a study, what sort of annual chance would you consider intuitively reasonable?