I think your analysis offers a good framework to begin the discussion, because it makes people more open to listening. But the other half of the discussion has got to be honesty about the numbers, and that honesty is very much lacking in our modern media discourse. It’s deep, and problematic, and the media is almost universally responsible for peddling these cognitive biases to affect policy. I did a deep (seven articles in total) analysis on this, which you may be interested in taking a look at. It begins here:

Conscientious objector to the culture war. I think a lot. mirror: www.freakoutery.com writer at: www.opensourcedefense.org beggar at: www.patreon.com/bjcampbell

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