I went back to globalepidemics.org again this morning to check something.
Elbert County Georgia is listed as a red zone, with 39.4 daily new cases cases per 100k.
Elbert County has zero covid deaths ever, and has only had 240 cases ever. Their "second wave" is going to peak at 10 cases per day. Am I seriously supposed to believe that Elbert County is more dangerous than Manhattan?
I want you to watch Georgia's numbers at the Georgia DPH website for the next two weeks. Do it once daily with your coffee, like I do.
The "new confirmed cases" ramp hit a brick wall on July 2nd. This brick wall doesn't show up in places like globalpandemics.org because they are farming their data from scrapers, and the scrapers have lag built into them. When they scrape data from a website they're misapplying the date of the case to the date the case was scraped, instead of the date of the test or the date of the onset of symptoms.
We hit this brick wall because our testing rate finally caught up with the actual infection rate.
If you back figure actual infections using an assumed IFR (such as 0.5%, although this might be high) then you can see that the infection in Georgia, as well as everywhere else in the country, was something like ten times higher than the confirmed case count back in April. Our peak was 9000 cases per day. But nobody knew it because we didn't have any tests.