Oh yeah. I liked your piece, by the way.
For better or worse, they’ll continue to have a strong influence on state and local politics for a long time to come, even if they do get wiped out at the federal level over the next couple of years.
I personally don’t see how they’re going to get wiped out unless the Democrats get their ducks in a row. Republicans will probably stay a strong force in national level politics for a long while purely because of the number of people driven away from the modern left.
The Democrats did well when they had people willing to say simple things like, “I’m all for trying to narrow the wealth gap, but Karl Marx was garbage.” That’s not an extreme position — that’s a position that most of the country can get behind, and it’s also very well supported historically in the numbers. But the Blue Well has been very poisoned in the past half a decade with some very toxic ideas, that push people away from them as the toxicity takes hold. That trend alone is going to float the Republicans. The other main problem the Democrats have flows from what amounts to a faith based adoption of the principles of Critical Theory and Cultural Postmodernism as if they were scientific fact. And heavy use of those tools leads to divisiveness instead of inclusiveness, which hinders the Democrats from seizing a plurality of the vote. You don’t win a popularity contest, which is what Democracy with a big D is, by telling a large number of people they’re culturally deplorable.
These are the sort of structural issues the Democrats need to iron out, in order to reap the rewards of what they correctly perceive (my opinion) as Republican rot. They have to fix their own rot. They’ve made basically no progress fixing this since 2016, and I don’t see anyone stepping up to try and fix it before 2020.
It’s hard to know what the 2020 thing is going to look like without first knowing the players, but a presumption that it’s a slam dunk is myopic and not at all introspective.