That’s a great response. Your approach to prepping is the sort of approach that makes great mathematical sense regardless of what the odds are, because it’s a small investment for a potentially large return. I would argue that owning a rifle is a similarly small investment compared to what some of the west coasters referenced in the article are shelling out.
I think your criticism of the odds I drew has some validity, but the odds are still clearly nonzero. What sort of objective mathematical procedure would you use to draw up odds you consider to be fair? What odds would you find believable?
We have had other stretches of “long peace” in history as well, which have all ended sooner or later.