There are a lot of potential changes fraying the edges of the NRA right now. I’m not as plugged in as some on it, but the factors which may influence the organization going forward are these:

Wayne LaPierre is a generally bad leader who may have been embezzling funds or using the NRA budget as a slush.

Much of the NRA operating capital basically gets funneled into Republican lawmakers hands defacto, so it’s being used basically as a red tribe money harvesting front. This prevents the blue tribe gun owners (of which there are many, and whom seem to disproportionately read this blog) from donating.

They would get a lot more bang for their buck backing local races of pro-gun Democrats than they would having to donate in general elections, because if they can win the blue primary they don’t have to spend anything in the general election. This is an obvious application of game theory to their mission that they’re missing out on.

A lot of their efforts fall completely in the culture war bucket, when they could gain a lot of ground by simply presenting the mathematics in a real manor. Further, the bulk of gun deaths in this country are male gun owners taking their own lives, which are literally their major demographic draw.

There was an attempt at a soft coup in leadership at the NRA recently that failed, over these and other issues. I expect Wayne’s grip on the organization to slip further in the future.

If the NRA were to return to its roots, as a gun ownership and gun safety organization, instead of a political tribal culture war front, I think they would grow their brand a lot better. I don’t think the higher ups in it understand this — at least according to many of the gun folks I speak to.